Monte Carlo Sprint Forecast is a new, free extension from Baytek. It adds one tile to your Azure DevOps dashboard that answers a single planning question: how many work items will this team finish next sprint? You can get it from the Visual Studio Marketplace: https://marketplace.visualstudio.com/items?itemName=Baytek.monte-carlo-sprint-forecast
What it shows
The tile shows two numbers, at 85% and at 50% confidence, with the distribution of outcomes behind them. The 85% figure is what the team finishes or beats in 85 of 100 simulated sprints, a common choice for a commitment you want to keep. The 50% figure is the middle of the distribution, useful as a stretch number.
- It learns from your own team’s delivery history: the last completed sprints, up to 12, not counting the sprint in progress.
- It runs 10,000 simulated sprints by resampling that history, so the range reflects how consistent your delivery has actually been.
- It comes in 2x2 and 2x4 sizes and works on the light and dark themes.
Who it is for
Teams that want a forecast on their dashboard without installing a full analytics suite. There is no account, no trial and no licence key. The rules are fixed and there are no settings: an item counts as finished when its state name contains Done, Closed, Completed, Resolved, Ready to release or Ready for release, and only backlog items are counted. If your team finishes work in differently named states, the tile will not reflect that.
What it reads, and what leaves Azure DevOps
The extension asks for two read-only scopes: Project and team (vso.project) and Work items (vso.work). It does not change your work items, boards, sprints or settings. It runs in your browser inside Azure DevOps, nothing is sent to Baytek, and it collects no usage data.
How to add it
Open a dashboard in your project and choose Edit, then Add widget, and search for Monte Carlo Sprint Forecast. Add the tile, open its Configure panel and pick the team, then Save. The tile loads the forecast.
Want a date for a whole backlog?
This tile answers the next-sprint question. Agile Analytics, the paid extension, adds forecast dates for a whole backlog, your own workflow mapping, and cycle time, flow and DORA metrics. It has a free 30-day trial. The two extensions are separate, so you can use either or both.
Related: Monte Carlo Sprint Forecast on the Marketplace · How the free tile works